volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous

Since the end of the Cold War, the military has used the acronym VUCA to describe our global environment: one that is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. In response to this new normal, the military has developed several approaches we can apply to make it easier to do what matters on our own everyday battlegrounds.

One is captured in the military mantra "Slow is smooth. Smooth is fast" - meaning, when you go slow, things are smoother, and when things are smooth, you can move faster. This is particularly true in conflicts where the ability to move in a coordinated fashion while staying alert to possible threats from every direction - and often while carrying weapons - is key. If you stop or move too slowly, you become an easy target. "but if you move too fast, you get surrounded and outflanked," as consultant Joe Indvik writes.

Indvik continues, "If you look closely at how elite infantry move, it looks like this: somewhere between a walk and a run, underscored by quick but careful footfalls, with weapons raised while rhythmically scanning the battlefield in all directions."

Less experienced infantry, he says, "will often zealously sprint into battle and give the impression of momentum." The problem with this approach is that as soon as they are in danger they will have to sprint to take cover at the first chance they get, and may end up in a place they haven't had time to survey or assess.... "Like the proverbial hare, this cycle of sprint-and-recover may seem fast in the moment, but long-term progress through the environment is slow and plagued by unidentified threats."

When you go slow, things are smoother. You have time to observe, to plan, to coordinate efforts. But go too slow and you may get stuck or lose your momentum. This is just as true in life and work as it is on the battlefield. To make progress despite the complexity and uncertainty we encounter on a daily basis, we need to choose the right range and keep within it.

Greg McKeown

Effortless: Make it Easier to do what Matters Most. By Greg McKeown. Random House. 2021. p. 139, 140. See also "Slow is Smooth, Smooth is Fast: What SEAL and Delta Force operators can teach us about management" by Joe Indvik.

ask fundamentally different questions

The most powerful use of digital tools is not to cut costs, create efficiencies, or even move faster and with greater agility, but to ask fundamentally different questions. It is through exploring these new possibilities that we can solve complex problems and make more meaningful impacts for customers, employees, and the communities we serve.

Effective Digital Transformation Depends on a Shared Language, by David C. Hay, Thomas C. Redman, C. Lwanga Yonke, and John A. Zachman. Harvard Business Review. December 14, 2021

profoundly simple

Understanding evolves through three phases: simplistic, complex, and profoundly simple.

William Schutz

As quoted in Beyond Performance 2.0: A Proven Approach to Leading Large-Scale Change. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2019 by Scott Keller and Bill Schaninger

centralised/decentralised command

Soldiers regularly have to deal with the four forces dubbed VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity). In particular, Mr Gareth Tennant [formerly of the Royal Marines] cites the concept of mission command which developed during the Napoleonic wars. Armies found that, by the time messages had arrived at the front, the military situation had changed. The lesson was to establish what the army was trying to achieve before the battle and allow junior commanders to use their initiative and take decisions as the situation demanded.

The ideal command structure is not a rigid hierarchy, he argues, but a sphere, where the core sets the culture and the parts of the organisation at the edge are free to react to events outside them. In effect, the contrast is between centralised command and decentralised execution.

"What the armed forces can teach business." The Economist. Oct. 24, 2020

navigation of ambiguity

Rapidly increasing rates of change and growing complexity has made navigating ambiguity essential in leadership. We've begun to see disruptive change in all directions, and leaders must be agile to navigate the ambiguity and stay competitive. Leaders who can remain calm and relaxed and continue to inspire their teams in the face of increasing complexity give their companies a tremendous advantage.

Rey Castellanos, Feed Your Wolf

"13 Leadership Skills You Didn't Need A Decade Ago That Are Now Essential." Forbes. December 13, 2016

resiliency

Over the past decade, the pace of change and the growing complexity of the business environment has increased dramatically. Leaders often find themselves overworked and overwhelmed in response to these challenges. Building up their resilience is an essential skill set. Resilient leaders are able to manage personal and organizational anxiety effectively and exude calm and confidence.

Irvine Nugent, Sonos Leadership
"13 Leadership Skills You Didn't Need A Decade Ago That Are Now Essential." Forbes. December 13, 2016

find and insist upon our own decent simplicity

We are so caught up in the complexity and clamor of our way of life that we do not realize how much all of these powerful efforts to attract or divert us are a tax on our spirit: they do a double harm, in the triviality of what they offer and the fatigue which they engender, that keeps us from doing something more profitable with our time. Even to screen out that portion of our culture that we do not want becomes an effort of will. Simplicity of life is no longer ours to begin with, as it was in the days of remote farms, and of school lessons written on the back of a shovel. In a world of congestion, shattering noise and an infinity of seductions, we must, in the midst of a carnival, find and insist upon our own decent simplicity.

Thomas Griffith

The Waist-High Culture. Harper & Brothers. 1959. pg.188. As quoted in Overcoming the World by F. Burton Howard. Ensign. Sep. 1996.

tolerance of ambiguity

There are inherent personality traits in someone who will most likely be successful working in a complex crisis. They’re easy to describe, harder to realize and even harder to capture at the right time....

“It’s tolerance of ambiguity,” said [Michael] Bowers (senior director of strategic response and global emergencies for Mercy Corps.), who began his career in Kosovo. “We get a lot of people stewing in that for so long — in South Sudan, in Syria, surrounded by a bombardment of challenges. It’s not just thinking quickly, it’s something that’s protracted years … with no end in sight....”


Kelli Rogers

"Leadership in conflict defined by 'durability of solution thinking'" devex. 8/24/2015

replacing policy with principles

The curious thing about organizations is that having more people somehow doesn't equal more output. “As size and complexity of an organization increases, productivity of individuals working in that organization tends to decrease,” he says. As headcount grows, so too does the policy-and-paperwork stuff that gets in the way of rapid iteration and scale.

Why is this the case? “I think it comes down to human nature and the way we react to problems,” Curtis says. Our natural response to any problem — from a downed server to a social gaffe — is to try to ensure that it doesn’t happen again. In companies, more often that not, those solutions take the form of new policies. “What happens when you create a new policy, of course, is that you have to fit it into all of your existing rules.” And so begins a web of ever-increasing complexity that's all about prevention. Soon, you start to hit safeguards no matter what it is you're trying to do.

To avoid this type of bureaucracy from the very beginning of your company, you should adopt two particular tactics: “First, you have to build teams with good judgment, because you need to be able to put your trust in people,” Curtis says. “Then you shape that good judgment with strong principles.”

Minimizing rules that become roadblocks in your organization will only work if you’ve built a team that will make good decisions in the absence of rigid structure. Your hiring process is where you can take the biggest strides toward preventing bureaucracy.


Interview with Airbnb VP Engineering Mike Curtis
"Bureaucracy Isn’t Inevitable — Here’s How Airbnb Beat It" First Round Review. 5/18/2015

challenge your certainty

Our beliefs and assumptions are skewed by personal biases and not to be fully trusted. Often they haven't been tested or revised based upon new information. They reflect partial knowledge and are only partially wise. Resist acting instinctively on your beliefs and assumptions, and open your mind to the subject's potential complexity. Before registering your opinion, enter into a state of not knowing. Zen Buddhists call this the "beginner's mind." Robert Kegan and Lisa Laskow Lahey (Immunity to Change, Harvard Business School Publishing, 2009) would describe this as moving from the "self-authorizing mind" to the "self-transforming mind." 

Once you learn to distrust yourself, it's easier to trust others. The goal isn't to locate the most trustworthy or least fallible individual and hand all decision-making to this person; the goal is to share the load and get everyone to feel ownership in the organization's direction and operations. This doesn't mean that everyone should participate in every decision, but decision-making needs to be more evenly distributed. 

Gary B. Cohen

"Leadership: How to Ask the Right Questions" Bloomberg Business. 9/29/2009

simplify and focus

Today, most assume that Xbox was somehow destined to be a winner, but having been Microsoft’s chief Xbox officer, I am here to report that its early years were much more like a ship on the rocks than a sloop cutting through the waves.... As I reflect on surviving the near-death Xbox experience, which we turned around using a strategy process called the 3P Framework to create Xbox 360... I would humbly suggest the following...

Simplify and focus. When things are going badly, there is rarely one obvious problem. In fact, the issues are usually more like a giant knot of yarn, rich in complexity with threads running randomly through the organization. To untie the knot, you can’t pull on every part of it at once. Instead, you have to reduce your activities to a few focused efforts that are both urgent and important. As you begin pulling on those areas, more clarity will emerge, and logical next steps will appear. The secret to solving complex problems is actually radical simplicity.

Robbie Bach

"The Big Leadership Lessons I Learned Almost Failing To Create Xbox For Microsoft" Forbes. 11/5/2015

simplistic reductionism

[T]here is [a] temptation which we must especially guard against: the simplistic reductionism which sees only good or evil... The contemporary world, with its open wounds which affect so many of our brothers and sisters, demands that we confront every form of polarization which would divide it into these two camps. We know that in the attempt to be freed of the enemy without, we can be tempted to feed the enemy within. To imitate the hatred and violence of tyrants and murderers is the best way to take their place. That is something which you, as a people, reject.

Our response must instead be one of hope and healing, of peace and justice.... Our efforts must aim at restoring hope, righting wrongs, maintaining commitments, and thus promoting the well-being of individuals and of peoples. We must move forward together, as one, in a renewed spirit of fraternity and solidarity, cooperating generously for the common good.

The challenges facing us today call for a renewal of that spirit of cooperation, which has accomplished so much good throughout the history of the United States. The complexity, the gravity and the urgency of these challenges demand that we pool our resources and talents, and resolve to support one another, with respect for our differences and our convictions of conscience.

Pope Francis (Jorge Mario Bergoglio)

Speech given to Congress. Time Magazine. Washington D.C. 9/24/2015

managing vs. leading

Companies manage complexity first by planning and budgeting-setting targets or goals for the future (typically for the next month or year),establishing detailed steps for achieving those targets, and then allocating resources to accomplish those plans. By contrast, leading an organization to constructive change begins by setting a direction - developing a vision ofthe future (often the distant future) along with strategies for producing the changes needed to achieve that vision.

Management develops the capacity to achieve its plan by organizing and staffing-creating an organizational structure and set of jobs for accomplishing plan requirements, staffing the jobs with qualified individuals, communicating the plan to those people, delegating responsibility for carrying out the plan, and devising systems to monitor implementation. The equivalent leadership activity, however, is aligning people. This means communicating the new direction to those who can create coalitions that understand the vision and are committed to its achievement.

Finally, management ensures plan accomplishment by controlling and problem solving – monitoring results versus the plan in some detail, both formally and informally, by means of reports, meetings, and other tools; identifying deviations; and then planning and organizing to solve the problems. But for leadership, achieving a vision requires motivating and inspiring – keeping people moving in the right direction, despite major obstacles to change, by appealing to basic but often untapped human needs, values, and emotions.

John P. Kotter
“What Leaders Really Do.” Harvard Business Review. 1990.

change demands leadership

Management is about coping with complexity. Its practices and procedures are largely a response to one of the most significant developments of the twentieth century: the emergence of large organizations. Without good management, complex enterprises tend to become chaotic in ways that threaten their very existence. Good management brings a degree of order and consistency to key dimensions like the quality and profitability of products. 

Leadership, by contrast, is about coping with change. Part of the reason it has become so important in recent years is that the business world has become more competitive and more volatile. Faster technological change, greater international competition, the deregulation of markets, overcapacity in capital intensive industries, an unstable oil cartel, raiders with junk bonds, and the changing demographics of the workforce are among the many factors that have contributed to this shift. The net result is that doing what was done yesterday, or doing it 5% better, is no longer a formula for success. Major changes are more and more necessary to survive and compete effectively in this new environment. More change always demands more leadership.

John P. Kotter

“What Leaders Really Do.” Harvard Business Review. 1990.

[leaders] are responsible for learning

The days when a great leader at the top could learn for the entire organization are gone. As Senge points out, "in an increasingly dynamic, interdependent and unpredictable world, it is simply no longer possible for anyone to 'figure it all out at the top.'" For Senge, "leaders are designers, stewards, and teachers. They are responsible for building organizations where people continually expand their capacities to understand complexity, clarify vision, and improve shared mental models -- that is, they are responsible for learning."

Still, too many CEOs see communication as a one-way street where, as one military leader put it, "We have a responsibility to communicate vision to our subordinates and they have a responsibility to be open and receive our communication." Today, that kind of approach is nonsense on stilts. You can't have a "sell down" vision. You need a shared vision.

Don Tapscott

Great Leaders Don't Have Followers: They Collaborate. Huffington Post Business. 8/10/2015